Substack Library


Russia’s Social Contract, Taxes, $TSM

“Bang is the act. Bang is the IED explosion, the sniper taking a shot, or the beginning of an ambush .. being left of bang means that a person has observed one of the pre-event indicators, one of the warning signs.”

Past, Present, Future

“No matter what the circumstances, uncertainty is all we truly have.”

China’s Boom Is Over

In my career, I’ve tried to make sense of three big economies that were foreign to me—Russia, Brazil, and China. I started my career in Russia, worked for a bank with significant Brazilian operations (BankBoston), and focussed a lot on China while at Bridgewater and since leaving. The shortcut to unlocking each is spending time with people who can explain how things really work.

Watching Threads Fray

“We have seen much, comprehended much.

The Outlook — Threading A Needle

Note to readers—I must get a final version of book #3 to my editor. I am going to write a little less frequently until I get this manuscript off my desk, unless something blows up.

Bond People, Stock People & Reality

“He asked if he had any money; Don Quixote replied that he did not have a copper blanca, because he never had read in the stories of knights errant that any of them ever carried money. To this, the innkeeper replied that he was deceived, for if this was not written in the histories, it was because it had not seemed necessary to the authors to write down something as obvious and necessary as carrying money and … therefore should be taken as true and beyond dispute that all the knights-errant who fill so many books to overflowing carried well-provisioned purses for whatever might befall them…”. Don Quixote, Cervantes, 1605.

Hatch Battening

Note to readers: know an experienced analyst interested in this type of work? Send me their name.

Barbarians at the Gate

“Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China’s complete reunification is…a natural requirement for realizing the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” – China President Xi.

Pattern Recognition

“We’re entering an age of acceleration. The models underlying society at every level, which are largely based on a linear model of change, are going to have to be redefined.” Ray Kurzweil, Director of Engineering, Google.

The Warrior

Leonid, our first guest on Season #6 of the podcast, is not an easy man to land a conversation with. He is a drone operator on Ukraine’s front lines and, understandably, quite busy. Preventing Russian invaders from killing him and his compatriots takes precedence over talking to me and, via this link, with all of you.