Substack Library
GlossaryLetter from Buenos Aires
March 22, 2024This is a free post to give you a sense of what paid subscribers see. Writing these posts takes effort. If you value the content, sign up. Those funds help finance the research.
Putin is Evil, But He Won’t Win
February 19, 2024“No one shall be subjected to arbitrary arrest, detention or exile.”
China’s Deflationary Down Wave
February 9, 2024Note to my readers: I am in Florida to celebrate my wife’s birthday and attend rowing camp. As a result, no post next week unless the sky falls, in which case you will hear from me.
Would a Trump Win Move Markets?
January 26, 2024“I will try to express myself in my art as freely as I can and as wholly as I can, using for my defense the only arms I allow myself to use, silence, exile and cunning.”
Nikki in NH
January 22, 2024THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. INVESTING IS RISKY AND OFTEN PAINFUL. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Villains, Perpetrators, Markets
January 7, 2024“Four hoarse blasts of a ship’s whistle still raise the hair on my neck and set my feet to tapping.”
A Framework for Today’s Conflicts
December 1, 2023“In China and Islam, political contests were fought for control of an established framework of order. Dynasties changed, but each new ruling group portrayed itself as restoring a legitimate system that had fallen into disrepair.”
Russia’s Social Contract, Taxes, $TSM
November 28, 2023“Bang is the act. Bang is the IED explosion, the sniper taking a shot, or the beginning of an ambush .. being left of bang means that a person has observed one of the pre-event indicators, one of the warning signs.”
Past, Present, Future
November 1, 2023“No matter what the circumstances, uncertainty is all we truly have.”
China’s Boom Is Over
October 27, 2023In my career, I’ve tried to make sense of three big economies that were foreign to me—Russia, Brazil, and China. I started my career in Russia, worked for a bank with significant Brazilian operations (BankBoston), and focussed a lot on China while at Bridgewater and since leaving. The shortcut to unlocking each is spending time with people who can explain how things really work.