Substack Library

Glossary

Russia’s Post Putin Future

It takes a while for hype to converge on fair value. But eventually the physics of frauds, fads and fanatics plays out. That’s been true of technology stocks twice in my life, true with artists and bitcoin and true with leaders, including Vladimir Putin, once viewed as a real-life Darth Vader and now revealed to be an impulsive, reckless tyrant.

The Psychology of Extremist Leaders

“Narcissists thrive in chaotic times.” —Michael Maccoby, Narcissistic Leaders, the Incredible Pros, the Incredible Cons, Harvard Business Review.1

Putin’s Battle With Modernity

In the fall of 1991, I landed in St. Petersburg for what would turn out to be a three-year stint living in Russia. As we taxied to the terminal, I looked out the window. A worker was cutting the grass …with a scythe. In Russia, the ancient permeates the day-to-day.

Author, Arabist, Son, Spy

If you are new to these essays, welcome. My name is Paul Podolsky and I am an author (Raising a Thief), investor (former Bridgewater Associates), journalist (Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones Newswires, others) and Russia and China specialist. You can read more about me in the “about” section.

Opening Black Boxes

For most of its inhabitants, the modern world is full of black boxes, devices whose internal workings remain—to different degrees—a mystery to their users.”—Vaclav Smil.

Zero Covid Lessons

Concepts are less persuasive than actual experience. You know, in the abstract, car crashes are undesirable; then you are in one and the scream of tires, metal crunching into glass and a massive adrenaline jolt forever changes your perception of risk. Covid is doing the same, particularly in China.

Russia, One-Off or Precedent

Observing Russia is disturbing. How disturbing is in part a function of distance. When the war broke out, I was a few hours away in Cyprus. Later, in New England, an ocean separated me and I felt safer. Last week, driving Palo Alto’s Sand Hill Road, the idea of a Russia-like swing in US politics felt implausible. But what if what is unfolding in Russia is a disease that can spread?

Scholz, Xi and McCarthy’s Choice

The more Buchas are revealed, the more stark the moral choices both government leaders and the rest of us face. It’s not overdramatic to say that the fate of liberal, open society hangs on what choices are made. The person who faces the most immediate and difficult choice is Germany’s Olaf Scholz. China’s Xi and House Republican Leader McCarthy also matter. Politicians, like us all, are motivated by self-interest. It’s also true that most ethical teaching, both Western and Eastern, remind us that harmony is only achieved by balancing our own interests against the legitimate interests of others.

Policy Error Vortex

Of the almost 8 billion people we share this earth with, very few have much power over others. At this moment, however, three people have inordinate impact over our lives and wealth—Putin, Powell and Xi. Each took a big bet with a deeply flawed assumption. While each is pursuing their own agenda, together their actions are now triggering a self-reinforcing downward vortex of policy error. In response, I anticipate higher interest rates and declines in the price of many stocks and houses.

China’s Strength and Fragility

Putin might lose the war in Ukraine, which helps explain why he is threatening chemical and nuclear weapons and also reaching out to China for help. In that regards, my conversation with Yuhua Wang is timely. Yuhua has both an amazing life story and is also an expert in Chinese politics at Harvard. I very much enjoyed my chat with him and think you will, too. You can listen to the full conversation here.