On Laughter and Thanksgiving

A lot of what I write here is pretty serious, like my trip to Ukraine or concerns about the bond market.

China’s Boom Is Over

In my career, I’ve tried to make sense of three big economies that were foreign to me—Russia, Brazil, and China. I started my career in Russia, worked for a bank with significant Brazilian operations (BankBoston), and focussed a lot on China while at Bridgewater and since leaving. The shortcut to unlocking each is spending time with people who can explain how things really work.

Three Helpful Frameworks

To those of you who enjoyed Raising a Thief or Master, Minion, I am excited to announce my next book will be published in 2024 by Harriman House. Like Raising a Thief, this book is a non-fiction memoir, but about money instead of parenting.

Health Is Wealth

News flash…Master, Minion just won an award. I can’t reveal what award until later this year, but I am surprised and delighted. So…if you want an enjoyable read that gets into the psychological dimensions of a financial war, a good read awaits.

The Warrior

Leonid, our first guest on Season #6 of the podcast, is not an easy man to land a conversation with. He is a drone operator on Ukraine’s front lines and, understandably, quite busy. Preventing Russian invaders from killing him and his compatriots takes precedence over talking to me and, via this link, with all of you.

Season #5 Podcast Finale

The goal at the outset of our podcast was to answer a fundamental question—what lessons are people accumulating over the course of their life? These lessons differ from the ones we learn in school in that they are more grounded in gritty reality. For instance, exceptionally smart people (like former Defense Secretary Robert McNamara) can do very dumb things. That lesson was from Congressman Jim Himes regarding the US invasions of both Vietnam and Iraq.

Administering Amid Rapid Change

If someone forwarded this to you, you can read about who I am here. I was a strategist and equity partner at the biggest hedge fund in the world. Now I make my thoughts available to you and implement them with my own capital. This Substack grows via word-of-mouth, so please forward to friends. If you like this writing, you will enjoy my books Master, Minion, and Raising a Thief. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky and sometimes painful.

Ships, Supply Chains and Modern Finance

If someone forwarded this to you, my name is Paul. You can read about who I am here. This Substack grows via word-of-mouth, so please forward to your friends. If you like this writing, you will enjoy my books Master, Minion and Raising a Thief. Subscriptions are a vote of confidence and book and podcast reviews help lead others to my work.

Putin Context

If someone forwarded this to you, my name is Paul and you can read about me here. I encourage you to read my books Master, Minion and Raising a Thief and become a paid member of this Substack. If you read my books and liked them, please submit an Amazon review. If you don’t like them, I’m curious for your feedback, email me.

Liquidity Tightens

I don’t enjoy days like today.