Substack Library


Barbarians at the Gate

“Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China’s complete reunification is…a natural requirement for realizing the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” – China President Xi.

    Pattern Recognition

    “We’re entering an age of acceleration. The models underlying society at every level, which are largely based on a linear model of change, are going to have to be redefined.” Ray Kurzweil, Director of Engineering, Google.

    A Stock, An Index, and a Twinkie

    “Even if parallel lines do meet and I see it myself, I shall see it and say that they’ve met, but I still won’t accept it.” Ivan, The Brothers Karamazov, Dostoyevsky, 1879.

    Investing Amid Climate Change

    “The Prince of Darkness is a gentleman.”

    Oil Market Action

    ­­­“In the late 1970s, the average American adult male weighed 173 pounds. Now the average American man tips the scale at nearly 200 pounds…’average’ is not necessarily optimal.

    European Bonds

    German bonds look like Japanese and American bonds—vulnerable, though for slightly different reasons.

    The Warrior

    Leonid, our first guest on Season #6 of the podcast, is not an easy man to land a conversation with. He is a drone operator on Ukraine’s front lines and, understandably, quite busy. Preventing Russian invaders from killing him and his compatriots takes precedence over talking to me and, via this link, with all of you.

    Japanese Bonds

    I switched from journalism to finance in September 1998. My first job was at a bank on the “currency desk,” meaning we traded global currencies and interest rates for corporate clients. My boss believed the dollar would rise against the Japanese yen.

    Never Look Away

    “If you will take my advice you will tell us everything…” -Mr. Skinner.

    The Bond Market

    Markets are a kaleidoscope that keeps changing shape. It’s easy to over-focus on the details and lose perspective. So in the coming weeks, I want to go through the markets one by one, stare at the numbers, and ask a lot of questions. I start with the US bond market, not because it is the most interesting, but because this is where money is priced for the world’s reserve currency and everything else derives from that pricing. The price one pays for stocks, for instance, is directly related to the cost of money.