Substack Library


Russia’s Social Contract, Taxes, $TSM

“Bang is the act. Bang is the IED explosion, the sniper taking a shot, or the beginning of an ambush .. being left of bang means that a person has observed one of the pre-event indicators, one of the warning signs.”

On Laughter and Thanksgiving

A lot of what I write here is pretty serious, like my trip to Ukraine or concerns about the bond market.

Letter from Taiwan

As regular readers know, I mix looking at the numbers with on-the-ground research. Thus, Letter from Mississippi, Letter from Santiago, Letter from Tbilisi, Letter from Kyiv and today’s note. Also, for those of you who read and enjoyed Master, Minion, please submit a review on Amazon. Did I mention that books make great holiday gifts?

Treasuries, Trump, AI

“In the next five years…you won’t have to use different apps for different tasks. You’ll simply tell your device, in everyday language, what you want to do. And depending on how much information you choose to share with it, the software will be able to respond personally because it will have a rich understanding of your life.”

Modernity Mindset

Note to readers: I am headed to Taiwan. If there are readers there who would like to have a coffee, reach out. For the rest of you, I’ll post again as I can, based on what I learn, along the lines of Letter from Kyiv and Letter from Santiago. AS ALWAYS, THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. INVESTING IS RISKY AND OFTEN PAINFUL.

Past, Present, Future

“No matter what the circumstances, uncertainty is all we truly have.”

China’s Boom Is Over

In my career, I’ve tried to make sense of three big economies that were foreign to me—Russia, Brazil, and China. I started my career in Russia, worked for a bank with significant Brazilian operations (BankBoston), and focussed a lot on China while at Bridgewater and since leaving. The shortcut to unlocking each is spending time with people who can explain how things really work.

Watching Threads Fray

“We have seen much, comprehended much.

The Outlook — Threading A Needle

Note to readers—I must get a final version of book #3 to my editor. I am going to write a little less frequently until I get this manuscript off my desk, unless something blows up.

Three Helpful Frameworks

To those of you who enjoyed Raising a Thief or Master, Minion, I am excited to announce my next book will be published in 2024 by Harriman House. Like Raising a Thief, this book is a non-fiction memoir, but about money instead of parenting.