A Conversation with Neuroscientist David Linden

April 29, 2022

We are wired a bit funny, according to Johns Hopkins neuroscientist David Linden. Our brains send us contradictory thoughts and emotions. We also want to predict the future even when some things, like imagining a world we are no longer a part of, is impossible. You can hear the full conversation here.

“When I really try to engage with my own demise, I think my mind skates over the glossy surface of it,” said David.

David speaks from the perspective of a researcher immersed in the data, an author—Unique, A Compass of Pleasure, The Accidental Mind—and a person facing a terminal cancer diagnosis. At the time of our talk, he said he had months to live, a topic he broached in this Atlantic article.

“I got heart cancer and that stinks,” said David. At the same time, he said he felt “wonderfully grateful because I’ve had a great life and great opportunities.”

We can hold two opposing ideas as true even in the face of death. We can “feel simultaneously angry and grateful,” he said. If I were the one with the diagnosis, I don’t know if I’d be able to feel as grateful as David. I hope by some magic he will be cured even as I recognize that that thought is not anchored to reality or the odds, another example of contradictory ideas.

I am grateful David spent the time with me and that I can share this with you. In his most recent book, Unique, David blows up the notion of nature versus nurture. Instead, the accurate perspective is that individual traits are due to “heredity, interacting with experience filtered through the inherent randomness of development.” All three can interact and reinforce each other.

As a species, we crave solid experiences, a firm ground under our feet. Yet, our lives are more like water—fluid, placid one day and dangerously turbulent the next. Be it disease or Ukraine or financial market volatility, reality is more treacherous than we sometimes allow ourselves to admit, thus our shock when faced with a sudden shift in circumstances. “One way to feel in control, to not stop having agency, is to be curious,” said David.

A number of readers asked me about Ukraine and financial markets. I will write more about this next week. Below is a brief answer to each.

In terms of Ukraine, as I noted in March’s It’s Going to Get Worse in March, the sane are trying to counter the unhinged (Putin). That’s why the West is pouring ever stronger weapons into Ukraine. At the same time, Russia is cutting off energy supplies to Europe, which means funding for the Kremlin’s war machine is getting more strained, which increases the odds Putin loses. The greater the risk of loss, the higher the odds Russia uses nukes. If before the Ukraine invasion the risk of nukes was close to zero, now it is well above that. Let that sink in. There is a risk nuclear weapons are used. As David said, it’s hard for our minds not to skate over “the glossy surface” of that.

In terms of the US stock market,

I am also worried. Ukraine + slowing US growth + bad economic growth in China + rising global bond yields is not good. As of this writing, US stocks and bonds are each down about 14% this year, while inflation is running at 8% meaning the typical US household has seen the real value of their savings fall by around 16%! What you pay at the pump is a small affront in comparison.

My views are NOT investment advice. I share with you what I am thinking and doing for you to take or leave. As I noted in January’s The Tide Goes Out, this is a tricky time to invest. I am down about 1%.1 If stocks go up, this increases the risk the central bank tightens a lot, which is bad for stocks. If Russia goes nuclear, stocks get crushed. All this as the price investors pay for US stocks is still quite high.

Below is a long-term chart on the price of US stocks. There are lots of ways of calculating these numbers and no one way is precise. But it is still a useful exercise. If prices come closer to their historical average or even a bit below, or if interest rates rise further, US stocks are significantly overvalued. Look how far prices fell in the 1970s.