Substack Library

Glossary

Biden’s Big Bet

Regarding the plan, when Biden said Xi and Putin believe democracy can’t “compete in the 21st century” that rang true to me. My mind flashed back to a conversation I had had years before in an elegant Beijing restaurant. My interlocutor was a financially savvy Chinese acquaintance who had earned an advanced degree in the US, worked in New York for a period and then returned home. He was bald, wore a stylish black blazer and had a thoughtful manner. This was years before Trump and George Floyd.

Four Big Forces and the Cherished Oddball

Macro investors distill the big forces flowing across economies into a collection of investments. This process is a bit like painting a picture of what the future might bring.  However, unlike painting, whose veracity is often only seen clearly many years later, an investor can test the accuracy of their theory daily, the same way an athlete can check their prowess in competition.  

Playing Chess with Putin

The US leveled sanctions on Russia this week, using what was regarded as the “nuclear option,” targeting Russia’s bond market. Based on both market pricing and the tenuous connection many Russians will make between financial conditions and Putin, I suspect the bomb missed the mark.

Man’s Search for Money

While almost everyone worries about money, most people don’t like talking about it. Money triggers emotion, the topic is shrouded in lingo and some of the underlying concepts are indeed tricky. In a sense, money is a bit like sex, central to human existence, yet viewed as something private, best discussed, if discussed at all, behind closed doors with a specialist or a life partner.

Happenstance

Wednesday, I will publish my 18th podcast, this one with NBA star, businessman, father and husband Pat Garrity (available on Apple, Spotify, etc). As I reflect on my conversations with my guests, one thread that runs through them all is the role of a) happenstance and b) response. Happenstance is random, response is often creative and intentional.

The Cost of Conflict

Likely all of us registered, perhaps out of our peripheral vision, that Chinese and Americans sat down last week at a hotel in Anchorage, Alaska and that there was a “clash” and “posturing.”

The Artist’s Life and the Money Life

Last week I shared my interview with American sculptor Pete Beeman. You can hear the full conversation here.

Fathers, Sons and Money

In this month’s Things I Didn’t Learn in School podcasts, I share two conversations with men who have each had remarkable and quite different journeys. Pierre-Yves Bonnet was born in France and has lived in the US, Mexico, Spain and China. A key moment in his life came when his father insisted he learn two foreign languages. Roger Johnson was raised in Bridgeport, Connecticut, lacked the daily presence of a father, served time as a young man and went on to found an organization that helps get ex-cons and others on their feet and also became an involved father and minister. In both conversations, the relative impact of a father’s presence or absence is a thread. Click on their names above to listen or go to my website or Apple podcasts. (And if you like these conversations please submit a rating on Apple).

Reflections on Coups, Information and Mentoring

This edition is a “two-for,” a podcast and investment perspective. If you want the asset allocation that goes with this investment perspective, email me and I’ll share it. Also, if you like my book Raising a Thief, post a review on Amazon or tell a friend. If you like the podcast Things I Didn’t Learn in School, post a review on Apple Podcast. If you like these essays, share them. If you don’t like any of the above, tell me why and I’ll learn.

The Investment Risks of Regime Shifts

The below post was originally published in mid-December via the South China Morning Post (pre-this Substack distribution) and because both many readers didn’t receive it and due to of what’s transpired more recently, I’m re-sharing. Since this was published, we’ve crossed the threshold into violence.