Substack Library

Glossary

A Framework for Today’s Conflicts

“In China and Islam, political contests were fought for control of an established framework of order. Dynasties changed, but each new ruling group portrayed itself as restoring a legitimate system that had fallen into disrepair.”

World Order, Kissinger, 2014

“When bad men combine, the good must associate.”

Edmund Burke (1729-1797)

“No one makes hay this way anymore … today there is one man alone on a tractor, and then … mechanical turning and wrapping machines and huge plastic white cubes of stinking silage.”

Out Stealing Horses, Per Patterson, 2003


THIS IS NOT INVESTING OR TAX ADVICE. INVESTING IS RISKY AND OFTEN PAINFUL. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

Today I want to put current global conflicts into perspective, correct and update my tax analysis, and offer a macro outlook for 2024.

Today’s Conflicts

Ukraine, Russia. Taiwan, China. Gaza, Israel. On one level, they are all very different in geography, language, history, and culture. On the other hand, they are all the same, essentially different versions of North Korea versus South Korea.

The big divide in each conflict is the approach to modernism and the use of violence, or threat of violence, to slow modernity and keep people in line. Modernism is a big term but basically means a competitive, disruptive, high-tech economy, free speech and free trade, fast internet, science, term limits, clean government, meritocracy, and people having sex with whomever they wish, as long as it is not a child. This is also called an open society.

Pre-modern is also a big term but basically means agriculture, tribe, hierarchy based on blood or age rather than merit, violence rather than law, and resistance to disruption. This is also called a closed society. The pre-modern is run by a Czar, an Emperor, a Patriarch, or the village elder. The modern is run by no one person, it is a disaggregated often changing mass of CEOs, start-ups, NGOs, bloggers. Politicians have power, but not too much.

Ukrainians are dying to be let into the EU.To get in, the judges need to be clean and the press free. What is the EU? It is like McDonalds for government, a franchise that creates uniform standards. Putin hates the Ukrainians because allowing modernity to touch the Kremlin equals him going to jail. By modern standards, Putin is a war criminal. By pre-modern standards, he is a cunning conquerer.

Photo: Ukrainian group DakhaBrakha

Taiwan is the forefront of technical innovation. Well-designed chips are nothing without the foundries that make them and the best foundries are Taiwanese. Taiwan may not be willing to die for its freedom like Ukraine but is clearly resisting China (next month’s Presidential vote is worth watching). Xi hates the existence of Taiwan because it suggests there is a better way to run China and the first step in doing so is getting rid of the Party he is the head of. 

Israel is complex. There is a Hasidic part that is pre-modern and a reform/secular part that is modern, so the society itself is split. The reform/secular part wants to live more or less like they do in California, just with the Sabbath and bar mitzvahs. Hamas hates Israel for many reasons but one of them is that Israel has become wildly successful and wealthy on the same unforgiving soil where Hamas has produced poverty and dysfunction. Rather than learn from Israel, Hamas wants to kill it, similar to Putin. 


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