Substack Library
GlossaryHedging
August 11, 2023I am putting back on portfolio hedges because a series of developments suggest the effectiveness of the Fed’s tightening, combined with unattractive pricing and significant supply of US bonds may cause long end interest rates to rise further than I had thought and put downward pressure on stock prices.
Optimism & Fear
June 30, 2023I woke up last night at around 1 am worried about an economic report (personal consumption expenditures, or PCE) that was published today at 830 am. Before PCE came out, on the early morning drive down to the rowing dock, I listened to gloom and doom Bloomberg radio chatter about “stubborn” inflation and more Fed tightening. Bill Dudley, the former head of the New York Fed, confidently declared this morning that “the US bond rout is far from over.”
Europe’s Search for Civility
June 15, 2023If someone forwarded this to you, you can read about who I am here. I was a strategist and equity partner at the biggest hedge fund in the world. Now I make my thoughts available to you and implement them with my own capital. If you like this writing, you will enjoy my books Master, Minion, and Raising a Thief. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky and sometimes quite painful.
A Soft Landing
June 8, 2023If someone forwarded this to you, you can read about who I am here. I was a strategist and equity partner at the biggest hedge fund in the world. Now I make my thoughts available to you and implement them with my own capital. This Substack grows via word-of-mouth, so please forward to friends. If you like this writing, you will enjoy my books Master, Minion, and Raising a Thief. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky and sometimes quite painful.
Fear, Opportunity and Stock Bubbles
May 28, 2023If someone forwarded this to you, you can read about who I am here. I was a strategist and equity partner at the biggest hedge fund in the world. Now I make my thoughts available to you and implement them with my own capital. This Substack grows via word-of-mouth, so please forward to your friends. If you like this writing, you will enjoy my books Master, Minion, and Raising a Thief. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky and sometimes painful.
Leverage, Silos and Property
May 23, 2023If someone forwarded this to you, you can read about who I am here. I was a strategist and equity partner at the biggest hedge fund in the world. Now I make my thoughts available to you and implement them with my own capital. This Substack grows via word-of-mouth, so please forward to your friends. If you like this writing, you will enjoy my books Master, Minion, and Raising a Thief. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky and sometimes painful. Also, I’m going to take a few days off for the US holiday.
Ships, Supply Chains and Modern Finance
April 30, 2023If someone forwarded this to you, my name is Paul. You can read about who I am here. This Substack grows via word-of-mouth, so please forward to your friends. If you like this writing, you will enjoy my books Master, Minion and Raising a Thief. Subscriptions are a vote of confidence and book and podcast reviews help lead others to my work.
Three Card Monte
April 2, 2023If someone forwarded this to you, my name is Paul, you can read about me here. This Substack grows via word-of-mouth, so please forward to your friends. If you like this writing, you will enjoy my books Master, Minion and Raising a Thief as well as the podcast.
Weird Markets = Warning Sign
March 23, 2023I only make money in markets when I take a breath, slow down and step back. It’s easy to get too caught up in events as if investing were a soccer match…did they cut? …what did Yellen say exactly?