Substack Library
GlossaryThe Value of Counting
November 17, 2022Today, I want to talk about the value of counting, applied to your own life and China. While the two topics might seem unrelated, they aren’t. In both, the simple act of counting anchors perception.
Detonating Illusions
November 17, 2022Human beings easily create illusions that, like Santa Claus, we later grudgingly reassess. This phenomena is particularly obvious in financial markets but shows up in less measurable forms in every sphere of human endeavor. Today’s essay is about a few contemporary illustrations of this timeless theme.
Financial Conflict Plus…
November 17, 2022If you are new to these essays, welcome! My name is Paul. I am a writer and investor. I wrote the book Raising a Thief about being a parent. You may have seen my writing in The Wall Street Journal. For many years I was at Bridgewater Associates, an investment firm. My goal is to share content that shifts your perspective about how the world works, things you won’t learn at school. Feedback: paul@paulpodolsky.com.
It Began in Sarajevo
November 17, 2022When I say “it”, I mean both modernity and post-truth, post-Cold War conflict. Sarajevo, where I spent a few days this week, is both where the triggering event of WW1 transpired and a key theater in the 1992-1995 Bosnian War. The fear in Sarajevo now is that if Putin begins to win in Ukraine, China will swiftly move on Taiwan and Serbia will attack Bosnia. Recent clashes between Serbs and Kosovaars amplified those fears.
Post Destructive Leaders
November 17, 2022Countries get off track. It happens. While there are many things that lead a country to get off track—economic crises, extreme income inequality, simmering ethnic hatred—at the end of the day countries are people and people, us, are prone to avarice, xenophobia, delusion and rage and sometimes as a species we select leaders that reflect these unproductive ways of behaving.
Opening Black Boxes
November 17, 2022“For most of its inhabitants, the modern world is full of black boxes, devices whose internal workings remain—to different degrees—a mystery to their users.”—Vaclav Smil.
Author, Arabist, Son, Spy
November 17, 2022If you are new to these essays, welcome. My name is Paul Podolsky and I am an author (Raising a Thief), investor (former Bridgewater Associates), journalist (Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones Newswires, others) and Russia and China specialist. You can read more about me in the “about” section.
Cliff Notes To The Next Chapter
November 17, 2022Readers: If you are new, welcome! You can read about who I am and what I am up to here.
Ego, Self-Doubt, Survival
November 17, 2022I made a bad trade this week, which has led me to reflect on risk taking in general. The interesting thing with managing money is that unlike in other spheres of life— parenting, many forms of work, spirituality—you can keep score and track the quality of your thinking. In the sixteen years I’ve been tracking my investment results, $1 grew to around $3 averaging around 8% per year with low volatility. While more has gone right than wrong, I remember the trades that are wrong more acutely than the ones that were right. I think this is wiring, at least for most people. I don’t recall most of the time I’ve spent behind the wheel of a car, but the few times I’ve been in car crashes I recall quite vividly.
Independence and Integration
November 17, 2022We are wired to believe people in authority are there because they are wise.