Substack Library
GlossaryRussia, One-Off or Precedent
April 23, 2022Observing Russia is disturbing. How disturbing is in part a function of distance. When the war broke out, I was a few hours away in Cyprus. Later, in New England, an ocean separated me and I felt safer. Last week, driving Palo Alto’s Sand Hill Road, the idea of a Russia-like swing in US politics felt implausible. But what if what is unfolding in Russia is a disease that can spread?
Undermoney
April 16, 2022Undermoney is both the name of a new novel and a term invented by this week’s podcast guest, Jay Newman. Jay defines the term as money “which is unknown publicly but that controls individuals and events.” Given the theme of this Substack, I was of course intrigued to speak with him. You can hear the full episode here.
Scholz, Xi and McCarthy’s Choice
April 10, 2022The more Buchas are revealed, the more stark the moral choices both government leaders and the rest of us face. It’s not overdramatic to say that the fate of liberal, open society hangs on what choices are made. The person who faces the most immediate and difficult choice is Germany’s Olaf Scholz. China’s Xi and House Republican Leader McCarthy also matter. Politicians, like us all, are motivated by self-interest. It’s also true that most ethical teaching, both Western and Eastern, remind us that harmony is only achieved by balancing our own interests against the legitimate interests of others.
Crossing the Rubicon
April 3, 2022Things I Didn’t Learn in School has two parts—writing about what is going on in the world (macro) and podcasts of individual life stories (micro). To understand, it helps to both zoom in and out. The very best novels—Les Miserables or War and Peace—do exactly that.
Lessons We (Re) Learn in Ukraine
March 28, 2022The modern world is confusing because cause and effect is obscured. What exactly is the series of inventions, supply chains and business relationships that made the Apple computer I write this on come into existence? Connections are revealed when the normal flow is disrupted. You never noticed how much you rely on your thumb until you cut it. The war in Ukraine is just such a (tragic) disruption. Below are less lessons than reminders of forces that have always been there but are now made obvious.
Policy Error Vortex
March 23, 2022Of the almost 8 billion people we share this earth with, very few have much power over others. At this moment, however, three people have inordinate impact over our lives and wealth—Putin, Powell and Xi. Each took a big bet with a deeply flawed assumption. While each is pursuing their own agenda, together their actions are now triggering a self-reinforcing downward vortex of policy error. In response, I anticipate higher interest rates and declines in the price of many stocks and houses.
China’s Strength and Fragility
March 19, 2022Putin might lose the war in Ukraine, which helps explain why he is threatening chemical and nuclear weapons and also reaching out to China for help. In that regards, my conversation with Yuhua Wang is timely. Yuhua has both an amazing life story and is also an expert in Chinese politics at Harvard. I very much enjoyed my chat with him and think you will, too. You can listen to the full conversation here.
The Mask Comes Off
March 15, 2022Ukraine is bringing back to life images that once seemed frozen in 1940s Europe—trenches filled with bodies, burnt out husks of cities, terrified civilians on crammed train platforms. Putin’s fantastical lies, targeting of civilians and threats of using chemical and nuclear weapons suggest someone who will fight to the end. In pursuing this path, he has closed a chapter in history and taken the mask off authoritarianism.
Tightening Russia’s Money Spigot
March 9, 2022This newsletter grows through word of mouth, so forward away. I am writing a lot more than I typically do and intend to slow down when the pace of events does.
Our Leaders
March 6, 2022This podcast grows by word of mouth, so forward away. Today, I share a conversation with Congressman Jim Himes. You can hear the full episode here.