Substack Library
GlossaryLessons We (Re) Learn in Ukraine
March 28, 2022The modern world is confusing because cause and effect is obscured. What exactly is the series of inventions, supply chains and business relationships that made the Apple computer I write this on come into existence? Connections are revealed when the normal flow is disrupted. You never noticed how much you rely on your thumb until you cut it. The war in Ukraine is just such a (tragic) disruption. Below are less lessons than reminders of forces that have always been there but are now made obvious.
Policy Error Vortex
March 23, 2022Of the almost 8 billion people we share this earth with, very few have much power over others. At this moment, however, three people have inordinate impact over our lives and wealth—Putin, Powell and Xi. Each took a big bet with a deeply flawed assumption. While each is pursuing their own agenda, together their actions are now triggering a self-reinforcing downward vortex of policy error. In response, I anticipate higher interest rates and declines in the price of many stocks and houses.
China’s Strength and Fragility
March 19, 2022Putin might lose the war in Ukraine, which helps explain why he is threatening chemical and nuclear weapons and also reaching out to China for help. In that regards, my conversation with Yuhua Wang is timely. Yuhua has both an amazing life story and is also an expert in Chinese politics at Harvard. I very much enjoyed my chat with him and think you will, too. You can listen to the full conversation here.
The Mask Comes Off
March 15, 2022Ukraine is bringing back to life images that once seemed frozen in 1940s Europe—trenches filled with bodies, burnt out husks of cities, terrified civilians on crammed train platforms. Putin’s fantastical lies, targeting of civilians and threats of using chemical and nuclear weapons suggest someone who will fight to the end. In pursuing this path, he has closed a chapter in history and taken the mask off authoritarianism.
Tightening Russia’s Money Spigot
March 9, 2022This newsletter grows through word of mouth, so forward away. I am writing a lot more than I typically do and intend to slow down when the pace of events does.
Our Leaders
March 6, 2022This podcast grows by word of mouth, so forward away. Today, I share a conversation with Congressman Jim Himes. You can hear the full episode here.
It Is Going to Get Worse
March 4, 2022“Once my mother fainted from hunger. People thought she had died, and they laid her out with the corpses.” Putin on what his mother’s experience during the siege of Leningrad, 1941-44.
Harry Potter Versus Voldemort
February 27, 2022Ukraine fits so neatly into our story rubric that it is immediately recognizable. Zelensky is Harry Potter and Voldemort is you know who. It is also David and Goliath and The Hobbit and Smaug.
Ukraine Update #2
February 25, 2022I am aghast at the videos of Ukrainians cowering in subways, clutching their children, just as the Russians did when the Nazis attacked them.1 The parallel is 1939, when Hitler invaded Poland, only this is also being live streamed on Telegram, Twitter and TikTok. And that bizarre parallel—barbarous invasion alongside free, disorganized, observation facilitated by private companies, technology and citizens—sum up the essence of the conflict. This is the medieval versus the modern.
Ukraine Update
February 22, 2022I am getting questions about Ukraine. Below, I share what I am seeing and doing. I am also offering an “ask me anything zoom session” about this topic later today, if it’s helpful, and tried to pick a time that works for Asia, Europe and the US. To be sure, it is hard to offer clarity given how fast things are moving and my views will evolve as the facts do.