Substack Library
GlossaryLessons We (Re) Learn in Ukraine
March 28, 2022The modern world is confusing because cause and effect is obscured. What exactly is the series of inventions, supply chains and business relationships that made the Apple computer I write this on come into existence? Connections are revealed when the normal flow is disrupted. You never noticed how much you rely on your thumb until you cut it. The war in Ukraine is just such a (tragic) disruption. Below are less lessons than reminders of forces that have always been there but are now made obvious.
Policy Error Vortex
March 23, 2022Of the almost 8 billion people we share this earth with, very few have much power over others. At this moment, however, three people have inordinate impact over our lives and wealth—Putin, Powell and Xi. Each took a big bet with a deeply flawed assumption. While each is pursuing their own agenda, together their actions are now triggering a self-reinforcing downward vortex of policy error. In response, I anticipate higher interest rates and declines in the price of many stocks and houses.
The Physics of Story
February 6, 2022I like a good framework. For instance, an equity (a stock) has just two moving parts, earnings and the price paid for those earnings. Earnings, in turn, are spending. A framework puts individual observations, like the price investors are willing to pay to own a company’s earnings, into logical context.
Tightening and War
January 30, 2022There are times when it is easier to make money investing and times when it is harder; this is a time when it is harder. Investors (savers) need to simultaneously navigate a) less Fed money printing and b) a potential war—while not losing sight of the big picture, which is a transformative wave of innovation.
The Tide Goes Out
January 23, 2022If the rest of 2022 looks like January, most savers are in for some pain. Asset prices (stock indexes and bonds) are down and inflation is up. In real terms (after inflation), the typical saver has a lot less money, like about 8% less just this month. If this continues for the next six months … that is a meaningful decline in real wealth.
Jail Break
January 16, 2022The tricky thing about investing is there are no fixed truths. There is common sense—buy low, sell high—but the game shifts because we shift. The market is people and our attitudes toward saving evolve, particularly after ruptures like depressions, wars and pandemics. This is evident in the “big quit;” millions of people suddenly leaving their salaried jobs, myself among them.
Wins and Losses
December 19, 2021For those of you new to Things I Didn’t Learn in School, welcome. You can read about what these posts and podcasts are about here. While the topics I cover range, one of them is sharing how I invest. This is something I didn’t learn at school and I hope being transparent will both force me to be more thoughtful and allow you perspective on how another person is managing to navigate, in practical terms, a complex world. If I write something confusing, reach out.
Will the US System Snap?
December 5, 2021If you are new to Things I Didn’t Learn in School, welcome! You can read about what I am up to here. I welcome and learn from your questions and feedback. If someone forwarded this to you, consider signing up.
The Nest, the Soul and the Calculator
November 7, 2021If you are new to Things I Didn’t Learn in School, my name is Paul and I am a writer and an investor. If you click here, you can see what these posts and accompanying podcast are about.