Substack Library
GlossaryThe Warrior
September 3, 2023Leonid, our first guest on Season #6 of the podcast, is not an easy man to land a conversation with. He is a drone operator on Ukraine’s front lines and, understandably, quite busy. Preventing Russian invaders from killing him and his compatriots takes precedence over talking to me and, via this link, with all of you.
Japanese Bonds
August 31, 2023I switched from journalism to finance in September 1998. My first job was at a bank on the “currency desk,” meaning we traded global currencies and interest rates for corporate clients. My boss believed the dollar would rise against the Japanese yen.
Never Look Away
August 29, 2023“If you will take my advice you will tell us everything…” -Mr. Skinner.
The Bond Market
August 25, 2023Markets are a kaleidoscope that keeps changing shape. It’s easy to over-focus on the details and lose perspective. So in the coming weeks, I want to go through the markets one by one, stare at the numbers, and ask a lot of questions. I start with the US bond market, not because it is the most interesting, but because this is where money is priced for the world’s reserve currency and everything else derives from that pricing. The price one pays for stocks, for instance, is directly related to the cost of money.
Russia Might Turn Into a Failed State
August 23, 2023As I wrote on June 26, “Typically in Russia the penalty for dissent is death.” That’s how gangster organizations work, be they Soviet, Italian, or Putin-land. Prigozhin sowed and reaped.
Changing Fortunes
August 17, 2023Reminder to readers, on Monday I raise prices. For those already subscribed, thank you, no change in price!
Thinking in Pictures
August 14, 2023Edwin Lefevre’s 1923 Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is a cult classic and testimony to the perils of “watching the tape,” which is to say reading anything predictive into charts of financial markets. In truth, prices are determined by supply and demand, not pictures. And figuring out supply and demand takes a lot of work. That said, I still stare at charts before making investment decisions and below I share what the pictures look like to me today.
Hedging
August 11, 2023I am putting back on portfolio hedges because a series of developments suggest the effectiveness of the Fed’s tightening, combined with unattractive pricing and significant supply of US bonds may cause long end interest rates to rise further than I had thought and put downward pressure on stock prices.
Letter from Kyiv
August 5, 2023Subscribers: I will hold a zoom tomorrow (Sunday, August 6) at 11 Am East Coast time if you have questions about this post or any other topic. Call details are behind the paywall.