Substack Library
GlossaryModernity Mindset
November 7, 2023Note to readers: I am headed to Taiwan. If there are readers there who would like to have a coffee, reach out. For the rest of you, I’ll post again as I can, based on what I learn, along the lines of Letter from Kyiv and Letter from Santiago. AS ALWAYS, THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. INVESTING IS RISKY AND OFTEN PAINFUL.
Past, Present, Future
November 1, 2023“No matter what the circumstances, uncertainty is all we truly have.”
China’s Boom Is Over
October 27, 2023In my career, I’ve tried to make sense of three big economies that were foreign to me—Russia, Brazil, and China. I started my career in Russia, worked for a bank with significant Brazilian operations (BankBoston), and focussed a lot on China while at Bridgewater and since leaving. The shortcut to unlocking each is spending time with people who can explain how things really work.
The Outlook — Threading A Needle
October 17, 2023Note to readers—I must get a final version of book #3 to my editor. I am going to write a little less frequently until I get this manuscript off my desk, unless something blows up.
Three Helpful Frameworks
October 13, 2023To those of you who enjoyed Raising a Thief or Master, Minion, I am excited to announce my next book will be published in 2024 by Harriman House. Like Raising a Thief, this book is a non-fiction memoir, but about money instead of parenting.
Bond People, Stock People & Reality
October 10, 2023“He asked if he had any money; Don Quixote replied that he did not have a copper blanca, because he never had read in the stories of knights errant that any of them ever carried money. To this, the innkeeper replied that he was deceived, for if this was not written in the histories, it was because it had not seemed necessary to the authors to write down something as obvious and necessary as carrying money and … therefore should be taken as true and beyond dispute that all the knights-errant who fill so many books to overflowing carried well-provisioned purses for whatever might befall them…”. Don Quixote, Cervantes, 1605.
Hatch Battening
October 7, 2023Note to readers: know an experienced analyst interested in this type of work? Send me their name.
Real Yields & A Synthetic Pension
October 2, 2023My father, who worked his whole life for the US Federal government as a scientist, had something wonderful—a pension. Since I worked for the private sector, I have savings and, if it’s still there, at some point Social Security, but no pension. The US has a pretty primitive pension system, certainly compared to places like Canada and Australia that force people to think long-term via forced savings.