Substack Library
GlossaryVillains, Perpetrators, Markets
January 7, 2024“Four hoarse blasts of a ship’s whistle still raise the hair on my neck and set my feet to tapping.”
Avoiding Drawdowns
January 1, 2024Today I am writing about drawdowns and market surprises. If you are here for the investment logic jump to the paid section.
Cycles + Tomorrow’s Returns Today
December 22, 2023Announcements: Master, Minion was selected by Kirkus Reviews as among the “top 100” Indie books published in 2023. There are about 4 million books published a year, of which Kirkus reviews about 10,000. It’s a political thriller full of art, love, sex, violence, and political intrigue. My next book, The Uncomfortable Truth About Money (Harriman), comes out next year.
Look Back & Look Out
December 15, 2023Announcements: If you like the content (books, podcast, Substack) submit a review (Amazon, Apple, this page). Also, I want to do a podcast on US health insurance. I am looking for a guest who knows these organizations from the inside out and can explain how they are incentivized to reject claims. If you know of someone, please let me know.
The Power of Positive Cash Flow
December 8, 2023“Before I can solve a problem, I just state it to myself. When I think I have found the solution I must prove I am right. I know of only one way to prove it; and that is, with my own money.”
A Framework for Today’s Conflicts
December 1, 2023“In China and Islam, political contests were fought for control of an established framework of order. Dynasties changed, but each new ruling group portrayed itself as restoring a legitimate system that had fallen into disrepair.”
Russia’s Social Contract, Taxes, $TSM
November 28, 2023“Bang is the act. Bang is the IED explosion, the sniper taking a shot, or the beginning of an ambush .. being left of bang means that a person has observed one of the pre-event indicators, one of the warning signs.”
On Laughter and Thanksgiving
November 22, 2023A lot of what I write here is pretty serious, like my trip to Ukraine or concerns about the bond market.
Letter from Taiwan
November 17, 2023As regular readers know, I mix looking at the numbers with on-the-ground research. Thus, Letter from Mississippi, Letter from Santiago, Letter from Tbilisi, Letter from Kyiv and today’s note. Also, for those of you who read and enjoyed Master, Minion, please submit a review on Amazon. Did I mention that books make great holiday gifts?
Treasuries, Trump, AI
November 10, 2023“In the next five years…you won’t have to use different apps for different tasks. You’ll simply tell your device, in everyday language, what you want to do. And depending on how much information you choose to share with it, the software will be able to respond personally because it will have a rich understanding of your life.”